| SUBJ:
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTXS31
PGTW 212100
IMMEDIATE
DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z2 --- NEAR 19.3S3 58.5E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110
NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 58.5E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 19.6S6 56.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080
NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER
WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 19.8S8 55.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080
NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST
QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140
NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 20.3S5 53.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 21.2S5 53.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150
NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
212100Z6
POSITION NEAR 19.4S4 58.0E3.
TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 211730Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. A 211738Z2 SSM/I PASS IS NO LONGER
INDICATING CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS WITH 26 NM EYE DIAMETER
NOTED IN LATEST INFRARED IMAGERY. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE
SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD INFLUENCE A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN THIS RIDGE BY 36 HOURS AND ALLOW FOR TC 10S
(DINA) TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE
AND AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET) WHICH ARE
ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHWEST MOTION LATE IN
THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z2
IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z3 AND 222100Z7.
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